Well, last week was very interesting, USDCHF has gone up, and it is still going up. Here are the Daily, 4 Hours, and 1 Hour Chart that I want to show you how to analyze it, and get a benefit from it.
Let us look at the bigger time frame, Daily Chart.
When you look at MACD at the bottom of the chart, there was a tiny little green arrow, to show the MACD Divergence UP signal. That was a very good evidence saying that, USDCHF "might" go up at that moment. Therefore, what I was doing is, I waited for 2 more days, and I looked at the smaller time frame to give me a solid prove. By the way, from that moment, which was 20 March 2011, I could say, there was about 60% of probability to say that, USDCHF will go up.
Like I said just now, after I had been waiting for 2 days long, I looked back 4 Hours Chart, which was my favorite time frame. What I saw in 4 Hours time frame was that, the market was so "confusing". You can look at the blue color line, which I draw. The market was doing very unstable, and when you look at the MACD, which is the bottom there, I draw 3 blue DOWN arrow, which was saying that, hmmm, USDCHF had not gone above 0 line to positive number. Therefore, at that moment, I told myself, it came out a conflict signal to me. ( Daily Chart signal out Bull market, however, 4 Hours signal out Bear market )
I was confused. When someone confuses about the market, the only thing you can do it WAIT! Do not ever think of enter the market and bet it, just like in casino, that is crazy,NO WAY for me, for you as well! Therefore, I lowered down the probability to 50 - 50 % chance to go up and down.
After two more days of waiting, there came out a long white candlestick which you can see from the "4 Hours USDCHF" photo above. The market finally cross above the MACD and go up to the positive number ( look at the bottom of 4 Hours chart, the UP arrow I draw ) Therefore, it is a good signal and it tells us that, it is the time to enter the market and go LONG for USDCHF soon.
The market went pretty high, and then, it pull back. Market rebounce and went up again. And there it is, I checked the Daily Chart again, which showed all the way blue signal in MACD. It gave me a very strong confidence for saying that, USDCHF will go up. Probably 70-80% of chance to go up. Therefore, there is go, final checking for 1 Hour chart
1 Hour Chart showed a very good signal. The market pulled back and went up again, which is the blue line I draw. After that, it came out a very confusing signal, but it was above the MACD positive number ( round and square I draw). At that moment, I entered the market and went LONG for USDCHF.
Eventually, it has been going up until Friday 25 March. I am not sure where will it goes, but enter and exit require the same analyzing skill. I will wait for the signal come out and exit the market.
Isn't it easy to trade Forex? Hmm,yes it is. If you analyzed the market like I did, then, you might get a better chance to earn a profit from it. From this analyzing, there is always no 100% of guaranteed that USDCHF will go up, however, if you took the higher chance of probability like I did, control pretty well about the risk management, you will earn money. Easy huh? Yes it is! 80-90% of chance that I will earn money if I continued to use the same method and pattern to enter the market. Therefore, why should I afraid? I have only 10-20 % of chance to loss my money, control efficient it, then not a problem.
I hope you enjoy the fun of trading game.
Thanks
Charles BY
yeah! good trade!
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